1. Fed Removes Easing Bias; Rate-Hike Odds Rise

At its 17 June meeting — the first chaired by Kevin Warsh — the FOMC voted 12–0 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3½–3¾ percent. The policy statement was notably shorter and dropped prior forward-guidance language signalling cuts. The dot-plot erased an earlier indication for one cut this year and pushed any reductions into 2027 and 2028 as policymakers weigh the durability of an inflation spike brought on by the Iran war. For end-2026, most officials now expect the benchmark rate to sit between 3.6% and 4.1%, up from the previous estimate of 3.25%–3.75%. Speaking at the ECB's annual forum in Sintra on 1 July, Warsh said inflation risks have eased recently but reiterated the Fed's primary objective is price stability, while also confirming the central bank will no longer provide traditional forward guidance on future rate decisions. The 10-year Treasury yield stood near 4.48% as of Wednesday's close, according to Edward Jones (1 July 2026).

2. US Equities Close Out a Strong H1; Tech Rotates on 1 July

In the first six months of 2026, the Dow climbed 8.9% — its best first-half performance since 2021 — the S&P 500 rose 9.6%, and the Nasdaq climbed 12.8%. The start of Q3 saw a divergence within technology: Meta Platforms surged approximately 11%, adding $179 billion in market capitalisation, after Bloomberg reported the company is building a cloud business to sell excess AI computing capacity. Semiconductor names gave back recent gains: Micron tumbled more than 10% on the day — though it remains up more than 260% year-to-date — Sandisk shed over 10%, and Nvidia and Broadcom fell roughly 1%–2%. Separately, the ADP National Employment Report showed soft private-sector hiring in June, with companies adding 98,000 people, a number modestly below consensus estimates, reinforcing uncertainty ahead of Friday's nonfarm payroll release. Past performance of any index, security, or fund mentioned above is not indicative of future results.

(Sources: CNBC, Charles Schwab — 1 July 2026)

3. South Korea Announces $880 bn AI and Chip Investment Drive

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will invest 800 trillion won (~$518 bn) with suppliers to build two new chip fabrication sites each in South Korea's southwest. A further 81 trillion won (~$52.5 bn) is expected to be invested for a chip-packaging cluster in the Chungcheong area near Seoul. President Lee Jae-myung cast the initiative as a "great leap forward" centred on the "triple axis" of semiconductors, physical AI and data centres. The announcement coincides with Nvidia projecting $1 trillion in AI infrastructure demand by 2027 and Micron Technology posting record-breaking fiscal third-quarter results, driving its market valuation past Meta and fuelling a rally across global semiconductor stocks in the week prior. (Sources: Al Jazeera, 29 June 2026; Distill Intelligence, 26 June 2026)

4. APAC Capital-Market Confidence at Survey High; HKEX Closed for Holiday

Confidence in Asia-Pacific capital markets has reached its highest point since the ASIFMA Asia-Pacific Capital Markets Survey was first published, with two-thirds of financial firms planning regional expansion over the next three years, according to the 2026 edition released by ASIFMA in collaboration with KPMG. Singapore and Hong Kong rank first and second respectively for ease of doing business across the eight APAC markets surveyed. The HKEX was closed today for the Hong Kong SAR Establishment Day public holiday. Singapore's earlier macro backdrop remains constructive: Singapore inflation held at 1.8% in May, cooler than expected as services costs eased, according to CNBC (23 June 2026). Meanwhile, correlations across Asian equity markets declined between June 2025 and February 2026 before increasing again during geopolitical tensions in March–April 2026, when the median correlation rose to around 26%, per the OECD Asia Capital Markets Report 2026. (Sources: Caproasia / ASIFMA–KPMG, 30 June 2026; CNBC, 23 June 2026; OECD, June 2026)

5. Private Credit Faces Elevated Scrutiny as Redemption Pressures Build

Investors have already requested more than $10 billion worth of redemptions from private credit funds in the first quarter of the year, according to calculations by the Financial Times, with that figure expected to rise. In February, Blue Owl Capital announced it would sell $1.4 billion of its direct lending investments — a figure reported by the Financial Times — to provide liquidity to shareholders, effectively halting redemptions until that portion of its loan book could be sold. Goldman Sachs has estimated that private credit funds could see assets reduced by $45 bn–$70 bn over the next two years if retail investors continue to shy away from the asset class. Analysts note the stress is concentrated at larger platforms: most observers believe recent events represent isolated, issuer-specific situations rather than indications of systemic stress, though the media narrative has tended to conflate multiple subsegments of private credit. A series of high-profile leveraged loan defaults in late 2025 and the rising use of payment-in-kind toggles in direct lending point to mounting stress in parts of the market.

The figures above are third-party industry data, not 1Oak Research's own holdings or performance. Past redemption, sale, and asset-flow figures are not indicative of future results.

(Sources: ACG Insights / Middle Market Growth, March 2026; With Intelligence, 2026 Outlook; Financial Times)

This news roundup is produced by 1Oak Research for general informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in it constitutes investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial instrument. All investments carry risk, including the possible total loss of capital. 1Oak Research is not a licensed or regulated financial entity.